B CAPITAL B PROJECTION
What if Capital B hits its target?
Model and formula by
@Bthemoon2030
Projected share price
€0.00
on —
vs €0.64 today
0
Sats / share
today ~732
0M
Final shares
— vs 276M
0%
Gross BTC drag
0 ₿ claim
⚠ Important
To reach the target Capital B will need additional instruments beyond what exists today; the model simulates this funding gap month-by-month, with new shares issued at each month's share price × mNAV.
1Pick a target
Custom BTC target
BTC price band (power law)
BTC price on — auto: fair
2Pick an mNAV
How the model uses this: mNAV ramps up linearly from today's implied level to your chosen value over the period. Cash inflows (warrants, ATM, future instruments) roll over between months and are spent when BTC is acquired.
3Outstanding warrants
Exercised in the month share price ≥ strike × 1.30
4OCA conversion trigger
When holders voluntarily convert their BTC-denominated debt to shares
What changing this means: Share count from conversion is fixed — what changes is when holders convert and whether they convert at all. Higher trigger = claim stays outstanding longer.
Holder trigger (× conv price) ×
Holders convert voluntarily once share price ≥ conv price × 1.30 (forced-only).
5Outstanding OCAs
Each tranche = fixed BTC claim. Conversion eliminates claim, adds shares.
Total BTC claim: 1,060 ₿. Tranches with multiple holders shown as "Multi".
6ATM (TOBAM €300M)
When Capital B taps the at-the-market facility to issue new shares for cash
What changing this means: The mNAV floor is the minimum premium at which Capital B is willing to issue new shares. Below this floor, no ATM happens. Above it, Capital B issues up to the cap. Each ATM-issued share is created at share price × mNAV — high mNAV produces fewer new shares per euro raised.
mNAV floor for ATM
ATM cap remaining €M
⚠ ATM disabled — mNAV (3.0) below floor (1.5).
7Capital stack at end
BTC claim staircase 36% drag
1,060 ₿ claimed of 2,943 ₿ total
The "drag" concept and BTC claim staircase framework comes from CEBE Tracker — Finish the Math: Capital B by Bobby Tierney. Highly recommended reading.
8Share count over time
Basic Warrants OCAs ATM Future
NFA of course, just math — @Bthemoon2030
Focused on the 20-month horizon (today through end of 2027) where Capital B's current capital stack is most relevant. BTC price follows an exponential path from today's actual price to the band's 31-12-2027 power-law projection (@Giovann35084111). BTC accumulation assumed linear. Each month: cash inflows (warrants exercised when share ≥ strike × 1.30; ATM if mNAV ≥ floor and cap not exhausted; filler instruments if cash gap remains) buy BTC at that month's BTC price. Share price = (BTC stack × BTC price × mNAV) / shares outstanding, computed iteratively for convergence. OCAs convert when share ≥ conv × holder-trigger; only Moonlight (B-03) still has original gates so its holder needs share ≥ conv to convert voluntarily. Per-tranche BTC allocation per CEBE Tracker estimates.